With a correlation of 0.9608654 between the actual and the predicted two-party popular vote for each state. The average difference between the actual and predicted two-party vote shares was -0.334%. That is, on average, Joe Biden underperformed his predicted vote share by -0.334 percentage points relative to the forecast.
| State | Actual Democratic Two-Party Vote Share | Predicted Democratic Two-Party Vote Share | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 56.86227 | 69.61151 | -12.7492349 |
| RI | 60.50962 | 69.52752 | -9.0179003 |
| HI | 65.03633 | 72.32903 | -7.2927031 |
| LA | 40.53556 | 33.93166 | 6.6039010 |
| SC | 44.07339 | 37.81854 | 6.2548501 |
| DE | 59.62674 | 65.87647 | -6.2497293 |
| AR | 35.78383 | 29.62813 | 6.1556991 |
| AK | 44.71671 | 40.02248 | 4.6942271 |
| NJ | 57.95494 | 62.50579 | -4.5508461 |
| CT | 60.17662 | 64.60562 | -4.4289997 |
| CA | 65.11285 | 69.50769 | -4.3948411 |
| WA | 59.96097 | 64.18870 | -4.2277291 |
| MA | 66.75495 | 70.77922 | -4.0242638 |
| ND | 32.78259 | 36.80377 | -4.0211801 |
| OR | 58.33414 | 62.25845 | -3.9243061 |
| NE | 40.24716 | 44.02699 | -3.7798311 |
| WV | 30.19374 | 33.80620 | -3.6124615 |
| KS | 42.25143 | 38.65813 | 3.5932950 |
| MN | 53.63371 | 50.05711 | 3.5765990 |
| MS | 40.59077 | 37.20396 | 3.3868054 |
| GA | 50.14226 | 47.01611 | 3.1261463 |
| ME | 55.14282 | 52.09217 | 3.0506449 |
| SD | 36.56522 | 39.42158 | -2.8563608 |
| AZ | 50.15683 | 47.34474 | 2.8120875 |
| MT | 41.60337 | 38.79975 | 2.8036197 |
| MO | 42.06354 | 39.50587 | 2.5576671 |
| AL | 37.03289 | 34.62090 | 2.4119937 |
| KY | 36.79758 | 34.47128 | 2.3263011 |
| IN | 41.79335 | 39.56968 | 2.2236715 |
| VA | 55.15147 | 57.35345 | -2.2019778 |
| NV | 51.22312 | 49.36777 | 1.8553463 |
| TN | 38.11647 | 36.32844 | 1.7880338 |
| NM | 55.51577 | 53.81917 | 1.6966043 |
| CO | 56.93974 | 58.48604 | -1.5463005 |
| UT | 39.31077 | 37.82175 | 1.4890258 |
| NC | 49.31625 | 48.10486 | 1.2113973 |
| IL | 58.45485 | 59.62805 | -1.1732022 |
| IA | 45.81652 | 46.91440 | -1.0978824 |
| VT | 68.29919 | 67.26910 | 1.0300846 |
| MI | 51.36015 | 50.53204 | 0.8281138 |
| NH | 53.74888 | 53.06014 | 0.6887330 |
| WY | 27.51957 | 26.85758 | 0.6619846 |
| FL | 48.30525 | 48.95294 | -0.6476975 |
| MD | 66.62085 | 67.16643 | -0.5455827 |
| OK | 33.05996 | 32.60532 | 0.4546372 |
| TX | 47.12886 | 46.69227 | 0.4365935 |
| ID | 34.12328 | 33.75413 | 0.3691501 |
| PA | 50.54056 | 50.68815 | -0.1475896 |
| OH | 45.85491 | 45.99202 | -0.1371140 |
| WI | 50.31728 | 50.35326 | -0.0359886 |
The exact 2020 outcomes actually happened in 53 of my simulations. To put that into perspective, my point prediction occurred in 5080 of my simulations, which equates to 0.051%. Forecasters cannot predict the election outcome with absolute certainty, but models provide a range of possible scenarios. This model successfully anticipated a close Electoral Race with a large popular vote margin, and the actual outcome occurred more than a handful of times in my simulations. It was not the most likely outcome, but neither is rolling any given number on a die.
## # A tibble: 1 x 2
## d_pv2p r_pv2p
## <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 0.519 0.481| Model | Mean Error | Root Mean Squared Error | Classification Accuracy | Missed States |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Manning | -0.2915302 | 3.901948 | 94 | AZ, GA, NV |
| The Economist | -2.3310087 | 2.803927 | 96 | FL, NC |
| FiveThirtyEight | -2.4447961 | 3.019431 | 96 | FL, NC |